2 builders who never spoke to each other · contested
Test the idea there, then distrust the verdict
A week of building and one submission is the cheapest way to end an internal argument about whether an idea is real, and that is how Segment settled theirs. The counter is that the visitors are not your market, so a spike proves curiosity rather than demand and a silent thread means your expectations were wrong rather than the idea. Use the reaction to learn what people say, not to count what they will buy.
Where this splits
One founder used a front page hit to prove an idea was real, while two others hold that neither a traffic spike nor silence tells you anything about demand.
2 claims against 1
Cory Zue · Justin Jackson
Neither a spike nor silence tells you about demand
- 01Discount traffic spikes as validation, because you cannot tell whether visitors are buyers or merely curious.
- 02A quiet launch on Hacker News after months of building in private is usually an expectations failure rather than a product failure, so do not read the silence as proof the idea is dead.
Launch there to settle whether the idea is real
Settle an internal argument about whether an idea is real by building it in a week and putting it on Hacker News.
What it returned
- 100
Segment had about six months of runway and nothing launched. One co-founder argued that 100 lines of JavaScript could never become a company. The week-long build went to the top of Hacker News on the day it appeared.
A Hacker News mention spiked traffic to the homepage of Justin's SaaS and converted nobody, since the visitors were not in the target market.
Sources
- How (not) to validate your ideaJustin Jackson · justinjackson.ca · How not to validate your idea · undated · dissenting
- Using Coding Skills to Make Passive IncomeCory Zue · coryzue.com · The transcript · 2025-01-14 · dissenting
- How the most successful B2B startups came up with their original ideaCalvin French-Owen · lennysnewsletter.com · Path 3: Present pull · 2023-08-08
the second source
Three plays a week, for the phase you are in
No roundup of links, no news. Three tactics more than one builder arrived at separately, with the numbers each one returned and the disagreements left in.
More in hacker news
- Bank the front page wave as reputation, not revenue2 unconnected
- Answer the question first, name the tool second2 unconnected
- Keep showing up long after your launch day2 unconnected
- Plan the front page spike as reach, not signupssingle source
- Publish your own numbers in unglamorous detailsingle source
- Expect the throwaway post to travel furthestsingle source · contested