skip to content

← back to the plays

independence4 unconnected
applies to

b2b and consumer, no audience needed

mixed results

confidence

high

evidence

10 claims · 10 articles · 4 receipts

window

2024-06-08 → 2026-06-25

4 builders who never spoke to each other

Enter where money is already changing hands

Existing spend in a category is the cheapest proof that the problem is worth solving, so look for buyers already paying somebody, anybody, to make it go away. Categories with no visible transactions ask you to fund the education of the market as well as the build.

The method

  1. 01

    Enter a category where money is already changing hands, since existing spend is proof the problem is worth solving.

  2. 02

    Require hard evidence of demand before building: people currently paying for something comparable, or people burning their own time assembling a workaround in a spreadsheet.

  3. 03

    Require three signals from a candidate opportunity: a strong felt need, evidence they're already spending time or money on it, and dissatisfaction with what they use now.

  4. 04

    Strong demand does not mean a popular category, a crowded one, or copying whatever product is doing well; look instead for proof that people want the thing to exist.

  5. 05

    Check first that people are already paying somebody for a solution, because an unpaid problem is not painful enough to build on.

What it returned

  • 2008

    When Airbnb launched in 2008 people already paid for hotel rooms, B&Bs, cottages and hostel beds; worldwide spending on travel accommodation runs at $570 billion a year.

  • Welsh names Reddit, Quora and Facebook groups as the forums to read, and treats people paying to fix a problem as the demand signal.

  • Craigslist has far more people seeking wedding photographers than magazines seeking artistic photo shoots.

  • The author's snowboard shop assumed thousands of local snowboarders would shop locally, ignoring that they were happy to drive to the city for more inventory.

Sources

the second source

Three plays a week, for the phase you are in

No roundup of links, no news. Three tactics more than one builder arrived at separately, with the numbers each one returned and the disagreements left in.

One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click, and the address is used for this and nothing else.

More in positioning

all positioning plays

the second source

Three plays a week, for the phase you are in

No roundup of links, no news. Three tactics more than one builder arrived at separately, with the numbers each one returned and the disagreements left in.

963 corroborated plays to draw from · 3 a week

One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click, and the address is used for this and nothing else.