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independenceone source · 1 more author in those circles
standing

contested · 2 claims against 2

applies to

b2b, no audience needed

mixed results

confidence

medium

evidence

5 claims · 4 articles · 4 receipts

window

2017-03-14 → 2022-10-03

a single source, nothing corroborates it · contested

A flat stretch is not the verdict

Products have sat near the same revenue for eighteen months and then clicked, so a long plateau straight after launch does not settle anything, and a fast start is not proof the curve keeps bending either. What it can mean is that you stopped doing the work: a product monetised and then never promoted simply flatlines, and a long slide often traces back to coasting rather than to the market.

What both sides agree on

  • Do not read a fast start as proof the curve will keep bending upward, and do not staff up on the assumption that it will.

Where this splits

A flat run is read both as normal and survivable, since products have turned around after eighteen months, and as self-inflicted evidence that the founder stopped promoting and someone else out-hustled them.

  1. side 01 · 2 claims

    A plateau is normal and can still turn

    Cory Zue · Tyler Tringas

    1. 1A long flat stretch straight after launch is not evidence the business has failed; the product and marketing combination can click much later.
    2. 2Income from digital products really can hold up over a couple of months of near-absence, so test that decoupling before assuming you must be present.

  2. side 02 · 2 claims

    A flat run means you stopped promoting it

    Cory Zue

    1. 1Treat a long revenue slide as a signal that you stopped doing the work that built the business, not just as market noise; the moment you coast on past success someone else out-hustles you.
    2. 2A product you monetize and then never promote will simply flatline; the paid tier alone does not create growth.

What it returned

  • $2,000

    Nathan Barry's ConvertKit sat near $2,000 in monthly recurring revenue for over eighteen months, then reached $600,000 a month in subscriptions two years later

  • $8,300

    Baremetrics reached $8,300 in monthly subscriptions six months from idea, raised money and hired for the growth it expected, then nearly ran out of cash before turning profitable

  • $2,795.71

    After six consecutive declining months, ending at $2,795.71 for Pegasus, Zue diagnosed himself as complacent for spending half a year on abstract essays and abandoned half-built products.

  • 2018

    Chat Stats got a paid tier in April 2018 and was then left entirely alone, neither improved nor promoted, leaving revenue flat at roughly $70 to $80 a month for the rest of the year.

Sources

the second source

Three plays a week, for the phase you are in

No roundup of links, no news. Three tactics more than one builder arrived at separately, with the numbers each one returned and the disagreements left in.

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the second source

Three plays a week, for the phase you are in

No roundup of links, no news. Three tactics more than one builder arrived at separately, with the numbers each one returned and the disagreements left in.

963 corroborated plays to draw from · 3 a week

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