a single source, nothing corroborates it

Ignore circulation and ask about engagement

Never build a forecast on converting one percent of a publication's readership: a musician who expected that of a magazine's circulation sold four copies, and a full page coupon advertisement in a paper reaching twenty thousand people brought in a handful. Circulation on its own says nothing about whether those readers care about the publication. Ask what the audience does with it, not how many of them there are.

The method

1. 01

   Never build a forecast on converting one percent of a publication's circulation; real response can land orders of magnitude below that.

2. 02

   Treat circulation figures as meaningless on their own - what matters is whether that audience is engaged with the publication.

What it returned

• 1%

  Derek Sivers tells of a musician who expected 1% of a magazine's readership to mean 10,000 CDs and sold four; Justin's own full-page coupon ad in a paper with 20,000 circulation, where 1% would have meant 200 customers, brought in a handful of people.

Sources

• Think clearly about print advertisingJustin Jackson · justinjackson.ca · Think clearly about print advertising · undated