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independence3 unconnected · 2 more authors in those circles
applies to

b2b, no audience needed

confidence

high

evidence

7 claims · 7 articles · 4 receipts

window

2016-10-282025-05-19

3 builders who never spoke to each other

Require a market that is growing, not just big

Growth rate matters as much as raw size: a modest category expanding fast beats a larger static one, because rising demand forgives mistakes and a flat one punishes them. Check the trend line before you commit, since the same effort in a shrinking market returns nothing.


The method

  1. 01

    Pick a market that is both large and getting larger, and check the number before committing.

  2. 02

    Choose a market that is big and getting bigger, because it hands you many niches, many ways to deliver value and many routes to market, so a first idea that fails is not fatal.

  3. 03

    Check that your addressable market is expanding rather than shrinking, and pick the growing side of any pair of comparable customer types.

  4. 04

    Check whether the market you are entering is growing. A flat category makes fundraising hard and leaves you unable to outspend the incumbents.

  5. 05

    A market that is currently modest but expanding fast can outperform a bigger static one, so weigh the growth rate alongside the raw size.


What it returned

  • 11%

    WordPress ran 11% of the ten million biggest websites when he started WP Engine, and 43% by 2023.

  • He lists the side benefits: budgets are already allocated, price expectations already exist, the press already covers the category, and the channels are already built.

  • Suggests online retailers over mall shops, ride-hailing drivers over conventional taxi drivers, and freelance designers over corporate accountants

  • The founder describes nutrition and colleges as stale, non growing markets, and says competing with MyFitnessPal and Noom would have needed a few million dollars.


Sources


the second source

Three plays a week, for the phase you are in

No roundup of links, no news. Three tactics more than one builder arrived at separately, with the numbers each one returned and the disagreements left in.

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the second source

Three plays a week, for the phase you are in

No roundup of links, no news. Three tactics more than one builder arrived at separately, with the numbers each one returned and the disagreements left in.

963 corroborated plays to draw from · 3 a week

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