3 builders who never spoke to each other
Estimate the loss and the gain, not the odds
Replace a guess at how likely something is to work with two things you can actually size: the worst case time and money at risk, and the best case value to customers, kept to powers of ten. Where nothing forces a decision now, say plainly that you are not deciding, and where the person watching the numbers can see headroom, act on it rather than waiting for everyone to agree.
The method
- 01
Replace a guess at how likely something is to work with two things you can actually estimate: how much time and money you lose in the worst case, and how much customer value you gain in the best.
- 02
When nothing forces a decision now, choose not to decide and say so plainly, rather than spending time on it at the expense of work that is actually needed.
- 03
When the person watching the acquisition numbers can see headroom, act on it. Waiting for everyone to agree costs years and can cost you a platform shift.
- 04
Decide on the numbers rather than on hope: records tell you which expansion is the logical one and keep you inside budget.
What it returned
He suggests restricting all such estimates to powers of ten.
The founder saw the growth available from the marketing side early but the partners were not aligned. It took about four years to capture it and they missed the move to mobile in the meantime.
System.ly reached two consecutive six-figure months with three staff, and Greg's own delivery work fell to three hours a week.
Sources
- S02 Episode 3: How to Value Your Funnel with Greg Hickman - Double Your FreelancingGreg Hickman · doubleyourfreelancing.com · S02 Episode 3: How to Value Your Funnel with Greg Hickman · 2018-05-01
- Lost confidenceJason Cohen · longform.asmartbear.com · Asymmetric bets · 2026-06-21
- When should a decision be fast, or slow?Jason Cohen · longform.asmartbear.com · When should a decision be fast, or slow? · 2018-09-05
- Digitizing a Startup & Making $170,000/MonthMehdi Kajbaf · failory.com · If you had the chance to do things differently, what would you do? · undated
the second source
Three plays a week, for the phase you are in
No roundup of links, no news. Three tactics more than one builder arrived at separately, with the numbers each one returned and the disagreements left in.
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