3 builders who never spoke to each other

Watch what buyers did, not what they say they will do

Stated preferences depend on the mood people are in when asked, and the things easiest to put into words are not the things driving behaviour, so research the purchases they have already made and watch how they actually buy and use. Do not set the roadmap or the channel plan from a survey, since respondents misremember, spending contradicts what they say they value, and the people you never reached cannot answer at all. An investor passing is not market feedback either, and no audience is as uniform as the tidy story about it suggests.

The method

1. 01

   Stop asking customers what they will want or buy later, since their answer depends on the mood they are in when you ask: research what they have already done instead and use that to predict the next purchase.

2. 02

   Weight what customers actually do above what they tell a survey, because the things easiest to put into words are not the things that drive behaviour.

3. 03

   Uncover what customers really want by watching how they actually buy and use things, then listening for the motivation underneath.

4. 04

   Discount survey answers that require the respondent to forecast their own future feelings, since people are poor at predicting their own behaviour.

5. 05

   Do not design a product around what your survey respondents say they prefer, because their spending contradicts it.

What it returned

• 90%

  Behavioural economist George Loewenstein's hot-cold empathy gap: calm people assume their future selves will be rational, while people gripped by hunger, exhaustion, jealousy, fear or anger decide worse. Bourgoin adds that emotion drives 90% of purchase decisions.

• 2008

  Wal-Mart's Project Impact, begun in 2008, acted on survey requests for tidier stores by cutting inventory 15%, redesigning shelves and clearing pallets from aisles; sales dropped, and Phil Terry put the cost of the experiment at roughly $1.85 billion.

• Rob Fitzpatrick's argument in The Mom Test, plus Justin's own case: he expected to be upset when Microsoft shut down Sunrise Calendar, then moved to Google Calendar and forgot about it.

• Rand Fishkin's respondents put celebrity speakers, expo halls, sales prospects, panels and fireside chats at the middle or bottom of what they look for, yet the events carrying all of those are the largest and most resilient ones.

Sources

• Empathy Gap | Customer CampKatelyn Bourgoin · customercamp.co · Focus on behavior patterns (not guesswork) · undated
• Selling stuff on a busy beachJustin Jackson · justinjackson.ca · An example from my life: snowboard retail · undated
• What the People of Wal-Mart wantJustin Jackson · justinjackson.ca · What the People of Wal-Mart want · undated
• Is the Product-Market Fit survey accurate?Justin Jackson · justinjackson.ca · Limitations of the Product/Market Fit Survey · undated
• No one wants to buy my sneakersJustin Jackson · justinjackson.ca · The lesson · undated
• The rise of the “successful” unsustainable companyJason Cohen · longform.asmartbear.com · The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company · 2012-10-23
• Analyze Your Audience's Political & Media Behavior in SparkToroRand Fishkin · sparktoro.com · What Are Some Applications for This Information? · 2020-10-30
• The 7 Marketing Problems Pinball-Shaped Buyer Journeys Create - SparkToroRand Fishkin · sparktoro.com · Transcript: · undated
• Why Are Marketing Conferences Shrinking? And What Do Attendees Say They Want? - SparkToroRand Fishkin · sparktoro.com · 2024-05-16
• The 13 Biggest Dragons’ Den Failures That Made MillionsFailory · failory.com · 1) Trunki · undated