a single source, nothing corroborates it

Double your instinct and quote in milestones

Progress on creative work is not linear with hours, so whatever number your gut produces should be doubled before it leaves your mouth. Estimation error grows with the size of the unit, which makes several small bounded milestones far more accurate than one large block. Interrogate every feature request before pricing it rather than quoting from your own mental picture of what it involves, and keep the ratio of estimated to actual hours so future quotes correct themselves.

The method

1. 01

   Take whatever number your instinct produces for a project and double it before quoting, since progress on creative work is not linear with hours spent.

2. 02

   Quote in small milestones with a bounded task list each rather than pricing one large block of work, because estimation error grows with the size of the unit.

3. 03

   Assume the buyer has already fixed a budget number in their head and will hold you to it even after scope shifts, so build slack into the estimate you quote.

4. 04

   Interrogate every feature request before pricing it instead of quoting from your own mental model of what it involves.

5. 05

   After each project compare hours estimated against hours actually logged, keep the ratio, and correct future quotes with it until the gap shrinks to nothing.

What it returned

• 200

  Dunn puts his own career total at roughly 200 estimates issued, with at least half of them won.

• Analogy: guessing where a walker crossing the country will be after three days is far more accurate than guessing where they will be after a month.

• Dunn priced a user groups feature as simple joining and leaving, then found the client expected moderation, group owners and invitations, and absorbed the cost.

• Dunn tracked this with Planscope, the tool he was building at the time.

Sources

• 6 Tips To Help You Create Better Estimates - Double Your FreelancingBrennan Dunn · doubleyourfreelancing.com · Double your initial guess · 2012-03-13
• How To Convince Your Clients To Pay You Hourly - Double Your FreelancingBrennan Dunn · doubleyourfreelancing.com · How I get my clients to pay hourly · 2012-03-18
• The Definitive Guide To Project Billing - Double Your FreelancingBrennan Dunn · doubleyourfreelancing.com · Per Project · 2013-07-30